Researchers at ANU have found a way to help farmers in Papua New Guinea prepare for climate change. 

Climate scientists, agronomists and communication specialists joined forces to find out how complex seasonal forecasts can be delivered to farmers in short, useful messages, allowing them to prepare for the season ahead. The project led to the development of Seasonal Farm Advisories (SFAs), which interpret long-range weather forecasts and send out essential information to farmers by text message. 

Many people in PNG are subsistence farmers or farmers using traditional techniques and are vulnerable to changes in the climate. 

“Over 80% of the PNG population practice or are involved in agriculture in some way, and so are very sensitive to changes in both climate variability and the observed changes and trends that we’re seeing in climate change,” said Dr Steven Crimp, the project lead at ANU and former Deputy Head of Climate at ICEDS. 

Many farmers rely on traditional seasonal knowledge. As climate change disrupts those traditional seasons, these unexpected changes leave them vulnerable to crop failures. For example, abnormally high levels of rainfall can cause pest infestations in crops like potatoes. At the same time, most farmers do not have internet-enabled devices, meaning they cannot access the available long-range weather forecasts. Where internet access is available, farmers may not always be able to interpret the forecasts and know how best to adapt their farming practices. 

The SFAs are bridging this gap between weather forecasting and farmers on the front lines of climate adaptation. The SFAs can warn farmers of a wet season, as well as giving them practical advice on what steps they can take to prepare, like planting crops on slopes or digging bigger surface drains. 

To create these SFAs, the project research teams surveyed farmers across three provinces (Eastern Highlands Province, East New Britain, and Morobe) to find out what climate information farmers really wanted to inform their farming decisions. They then established field trials to test the best ways to respond to climate conditions and show the impacts of new techniques to farmers in these provinces. 

“The results of those field trials then informed the development of a Seasonal Farm Advisory, which represents advice on best farm management practice response to climate variability,” said Steven. 

The messages are shared in English and Tok Pisin via SMS. This has been game-changing for many farmers who don't have access to smart devices. One commercial farmer had almost given up on growing cabbage, a valuable crop that generates much-needed income, but now that he has access to the weather forecasts he knows when there will be a good season, giving him the confidence to invest. The impact is multiplied when the text messages are shared by local agricultural leaders with their communities. 

As one farmer from Goroka put it, “I used to farm by guessing. Now I farm with confidence.” 

With the research aspect of the project now concluded, the National Agriculture Research Institute of Papua New Guinea (NARI) plans to continue the delivery of the Seasonal Farm Advisory and the project team hopes to expand the coverage to the entire country. 

This project was led by ANU and composed of representatives from CSIRO, Sustineo, NARI, PNG National Weather Service, Fresh Produce Development Agency, and the University of Goroka.